World War III and the Future of Our Civilization
Your Questions About War, the Future, and Where Civilization Goes From Here
What would you do if you were Joe Biden, or Boris Johnson?
This is the question, isn’t it? It’s another way of asking: now what?
I would be thinking very, very hard not just about war — but about the global economy, which creates the conditions for war. I’d be thinking very hard about Russia and China forming an authoritarian, anti-Western axis.
Let me give you the facts of the situation that too few understand.
See that chart above? It’s stark, grim evidence of what I’ve been discussing with you guys.
That’s Russia’s “current account,” which is just a fancy way of saying it’s national income, or exports minus imports. The chart says that Russia’s financial position is stronger than before. How can that be? Exports minus imports, remember? Russia is still exporting copious amounts of all its abundant natural resources. Oil, gas, coal, steel, iron, nickel, go down the list.
That chart tells us that Putin has plenty of money to keep feeding his war machine. His current account is in pretty dramatic surplus, which means money, money, money.
The way that Western leaders think about this isn’t wrong — it’s just inadequate. Who’s Russia exporting all that stuff to? Not just us — but crucially, to China.
So we can cut back on our Russian imports of oil, gas, steel, what have you. But that is not going to be enough. To what? To stop the war machine. Why not?
Because all this forms what I described to you guys as a “triangular trade.” Maybe you thought I was kidding, exaggerating, or maybe you were just hoping it wasn’t true. But the chart shows you the stark evidence. Russia’s current account surplus is growing precisely because even though we’ve suddenly cut back, China hasn’t. There are other nations, too, which haven’t joined the West in effectively cutting off Russian exports — they have little choice, to be fair, they’re poor and need them.
In this sense, the Western approach isn’t working. Putin’s war machine is plenty well…
