Nova Capital, an investor known for its bullish stance, said that Nvidia stock (NVDA) has a big move ahead, expecting a 65% upside over the next 12-24 months. The investor believes the company’s secular bullish story remains intact and is driven by sustained AI capital expenditure from major tech firms like Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta, projected to reach $650 billion in 2026. NVIDIA’s Q4 fiscal year 2026 earnings report, scheduled for February 25, is anticipated to pull a strong upward momentum that could serve as a ‘bullish confirmation’ of continued demand.
The Overwhelming Bullish Consensus
Wall Street remains overwhelmingly bullish, with a strong buy consensus rating, backed by 37 buys, 1 hold, and just 1 sell, with an average price target of $260.38, implying 42% upside from the current levels despite Nvidia’s recent sideways price trend. Analysts like Timothy Arcuri of UBS Group and Chris Caso of Wolfe Research are raising targets and Earnings Per Share (EPS) estimates. They are citing the strong fundamentals, like the Blackwell ramp and the upcoming Vera Rubin platform, as the key growth drivers. Caso sees a ‘clear path’ to upside for Nvidia in 2026 and 2027 estimates, following that, he raised his Fiscal 2028 EPS estimate to nearly $11.50, $1.50 above consensus.
Although major AI hyperscalers doubled their capex, which is poised to ramp up spending from nearly $400 billion last year to an astounding $700 billion in capex this year, the market hasn’t been kind to the hyperscalers, whose spending raises concerns about both the shrinking margins and potential bubbles has been one of the biggest reasons for the recent sideways trend of share price for NVDA. Additionally, some investors caution about near-term risks such as gross margin compression and competitive threats. However, Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater boosted NVDA’s stake by $253 million. Thereby signaling institutional confidence and overall sentiment points signaling a significant move ahead, especially if Nvidia delivers strong guidance and confirms continued leadership in AI infrastructure.
NVIDIA’s Leadership in the AI Infrastructure Buildout
Although the Trump administration’s shutdown of Nvidia’s chip export to China in April 2025 left a sizable hole in Nvidia’s business, China sales are likely to return to guidance. NVIDIA’s revenue expectation for China for second-quarter FY 2026 was $8 billion, and if the amount returns to guidance in the first quarter, it could result in a massive growth step-up above the market expectations. Furthermore, as AI hyperscalers have mentioned to investors about their 2026 capital expenditure plans, AI spending is expected to reach record levels this year. This will position Nvidia as a primary chip provider. Additionally, Nvidia’s Rubin platform or Rubin chip architecture is expected to provide huge efficiency improvements over the passive Blackwell generation. This new technology can allow Nvidia to continue delivering stellar growth.
NVIDIA’s product mix shifts have further improved the overall revenue mix, prioritizing high-margin AI data center chips with ~65% margins over lower-margin gaming GPUs of ~40% margins. However, the transitional periods of new AI chips facing ramp-up costs can temporarily weigh on gross margins. Though the AI-driven memory shortage has disrupted production planning, it has not directly lowered the margins; rather, it increased the complexity and cost in fulfilling the demand. This potentially affects profitability during transition.
