The U.S. stock index futures are climbing in early trading Monday, attempting a resilient rebound after Wall Street hit its lowest levels of 2026 on Friday. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) gained 0.2%, while S&P 500 futures (ES=F) and Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ=F) both climbed around 0.4%. The oil prices have been on a rapid rise since the war erupted between the United States and Iran, with both the US and international crude benchmarks climbing above $100 a barrel for the first time since 2022, during the Russia-Ukraine war.
A Weekend of Escalation
The market’s focus remains locked on the Persian Gulf. On Friday night, President Donald Trump announced that U.S. forces had executed a “powerful bombing raid” on Kharg Island, the hub responsible for processing 90% of Iran’s oil exports. While the U.S. spared actual oil infrastructure during those strikes “for reasons of decency,” the President has threatened to target it directly if Tehran continues to block the free flow of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. Roughly 20% of the world’s oil is transported through this narrow chokepoint, and according to independent research reports, the conflict has already taken more than 12 million barrels of oil equivalent per day offline.
Market sentiment shifted after the President shared posts on Truth Social detailing his administration’s calls for a multinational coalition to help escort tanker traffic through the critical Strait of Hormuz. Investors are viewing this diplomatic and military move as a critical step toward stabilizing global energy prices and restoring market confidence.
Oil Reclaims $100 Amid Supply Shock
Crude oil prices continued their ascent on Monday. Brent Crude, the international benchmark, rose 2.5% to $105.70 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained 1.6% to trade at $100.29. This level was last seen following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, which eventually drove Brent to a peak of nearly $139 per barrel by March of that year.
Analysts are viewing the ongoing crisis as more volatile than in 2022. “The scale of today’s disruption in the Persian Gulf is far greater than what was seen in 2022,” one analyst noted, pointing to the fact that over 12 million barrels are currently trapped behind the blockade.
Sentiment Shifts on Coalition Hopes
Market sentiment has pivoted toward cautious optimism following reports that the Trump administration is assembling a multinational coalition to unblock the Strait of Hormuz. After weeks of panic selling, the market is now pricing in a potential de-escalation. However, this recovery remains fragile; any sign that allies are refusing to join the naval escort could quickly send stock futures back to their Friday lows. Ultimately, the sustainability of this market rebound remains tethered to the successful formation of a multilateral maritime security framework.
