American investment management firm and ETF issuer VanEck’s MarketVector Crypto Heat Index – a data-driven “thermometer” that signals whether the crypto market is undervalued, neutral, or overheated – has triggered its first bull signal for Bitcoin since April 2025.
This suggests that the crypto market is potentially transitioning from an extended period of neutrality. However, analysts are now scrutinizing whether the index is signalling the beginning of a sustained recovery phase for the digital asset class.
VanEck Crypto Heat Index Turns Bullish on Bitcoin, Signals Accumulation
The VanEck MarketVector Crypto Heat Index serves as a critical barometer for institutional and retail investors. Unlike traditional fear-based sentiment gauges, it utilizes structural metrics such as on-chain activity, trading volume trends, and social sentiment data, and technical indicators, combined with moving averages to trigger systematic buy or sell alerts as the market shifts between undervalued, neutral, and overheated zones.
The index’s current reading of 16.8%, which is well below the crucial 20% threshold, suggests that the crypto market has entered deep ‘Undervalued’ territory. This is the first time since April 2025 that the indicator dipped into that zone. Martin Leinweber, digital asset product strategist at MarketVector Indexes – a subsidiary of VanEck – noted that the index’s proprietary moving averages have crossed into bullish territory, interpreting the low valuation as a signal to accumulate Bitcoin and other leading crypto assets.
“For investors still underallocated to crypto, this could be an opportune moment to reassess portfolio exposure rather than react later to price momentum. Sentiment appears near cycle lows,” co-author of the book ‘Mastering Crypto Assets: Investing in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Beyond’ (2024) added.
Historically, a reading below 20% on the MarketVector Crypto Heat Index often precedes periods of price appreciation for BTC. The index spent the majority of Q3 2025 oscillating in a neutral range between 25% and 40%, but the latest ‘undervalued’ reading broke that pattern.
Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at VanEck, acknowledged Leinweber’s analysis, stating that the firm’s proprietary quantitative models have aligned to trigger the first bullish signal for bitcoin in months.
“Our models are designed to filter out short-term noise. The convergence of signals we are observing now carries more statistical weight,” said Sigel.
VanEck has previously highlighted bitcoin’s potential for a major rebound in 2026 following a period of significant underperformance. The $83.5 billion asset manager noted that the alpha crypto’s four-year cycle suggests recoverable performance this year amid improving liquidity conditions.
Santiment: Bitcoin Whales Accumulate as Retail Takes Profits
Meanwhile, blockchain analytics firm Santiment has argued that continued Bitcoin accumulation by whales and recent profit-taking by retail traders could be seen as bullish, and lead to more upward market momentum. In a Monday X post, the agency noted that the crypto market typically follows the path of key whale and shark “stakeholders” and tends to move in the opposite direction of smaller retail wallets.
Sharks and whales are defined as the cohort holding anywhere between 10 and 10,000 BTC, while retail traders have wallets with less than 0.01 BTC. Since mid-December 2025, these large holders have collectively accumulated an estimated 56,227 BTC, valued at $5.25 billion.
Santiment’s X post suggested that this marked crypto’s local bottom, and even though the market stayed relatively flat since, the bullish divergence from the accumulation made by sharks and whales was “bound to produce at least a minor breakout”. According to the firm, market conditions have gotten better over the past 24 hours, as retail traders are now taking profit with the expectation that the market is in a “bull trap” or a “fool’s rally”.
They concluded that due to these dynamics, there is a “higher probability than usual” for continued growth in market capitalization throughout the digital assets market.
Bill Miller IV Predicts Bitcoin to Hit New ATH in 2026
Fund manager Bill Miller IV, son of legendary investor Bill Miller, has predicted that Bitcoin will set a new all-time high this year. The chief investment officer at Miller Value Partners told CNBC on Monday that technicals are starting to line up and things look like they’re “ready to go again”. He personally expects the apex crypto to break out to a higher high than its all-time high of $126,080 from October 2025.
The investor cited U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) chair Paul Atkins’s comments that capital markets could move on-chain and JPMorgan’s work on blockchain-based products and services as “massively positive” developments for BTC and could potentially place it on a “higher base” than it was in April 2025, when it opened the month at $82,551.
He also argued that BTC falling 6% yearly and being outperformed by gold and silver last year wasn’t a “big deal” given the volatility typically experienced by the cryptocurrency. Meanwhile, Bill Miller IV urged investors to “zoom out” when looking at the charts, as it shows that Bitcoin has never seen two consecutive years in the red.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $93,332 – up 0.88% in 24 hours.
