Morgan Stanley has reiterated its overweight (buy) rating on Nvidia (NVDA) ahead of NVIDIA’s Q4 FY 2026 Earnings Report, which was scheduled for February 25, 2026. Investors are curiously awaiting Nvidia’s Q4 earnings, as the last earnings report was an absolute ‘buy’, even though the stock market reacted negatively.
Recovery Momentum Ahead of the Earnings
Joseph Moore, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, raised his price target to $250, citing strong confidence in Nvidia’s near- and long-term growth. This target upgrade implies approximately 38% upside from the current levels, and aligns with the Wall Street consensus.
This earnings report scenario is quite different from last year’s earnings report. Last year’s report arrived after Nvidia had already begun a downward trend from its peak, closing at $207.04 on October 29, 2024. This year, Nvidia is approaching its earnings after recovering from a sharp drop, closing at $171.88 on February 9. At the time of writing, NVDA is trading at $191.55, up 0.91%. The Relative Strength Index (14) indicates neutral with the value of 56.76. Though the oscillator’s points are neutral, the moving average indicates a ‘strong buy.’
The AI bubble fears have started subsiding, with investors and markets becoming less worried about an imminent crash in AI-related stocks and companies. As in the case of Nvidia, the hope is that aside from an earnings smasher, the robust demand for Nvidia’s AI chips, particularly the incoming Blackwell architecture and trained models, which are in full production now, will reignite the high expectations of future AI models. Additionally, the approaching Vera Rubin platform launch is expected to be a key growth catalyst.
End-to-End Advantage Strengthening Competitive Moat
As hyperscalers like Microsoft Corporation, Meta Platforms, Inc., Alphabet Inc., and Amazon.com, Inc. continue to expand their AI workloads aggressively, Nvidia will be confident that the supply constraints won’t affect or limit the growth.
Several market observers believe that the recent stock underperformance was temporary, as customer and supplier feedback indicate faster growth than the Wall Street model predicted. However, Moore expects the ramp of Vera Rubin to proceed on schedule, though he sees potential for a steeper ramp in Vera Rubin supply than his previous expectations, as the forecasts have shifted from Blackwell to Vera Rubin in the second half of the year more rapidly than expected.
Moreover, the analyst noted that for the previous year, the company reported revenues nearly $3 billion above the guidance, and guided for $8 billion of sequential growth, which suggested that there was no deceleration. This is why Moore believes that there will be a $2 billion or more upside to the $64 billion guidance. This adds to a consensus revenue estimate of $72 billion, which analysts consider achievable.
Moore has also emphasized that Nvidia’s end-to-end advantage, combining the superior chip performance, mature software stack, and reliable roadmap, will continue to solidify its dominance, even amid the growing competition from Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and the potential of in-house solutions by cloud providers. Furthermore, Bank of America is expected to update its Nvidia stock forecast later this week. The bank keeps a Buy rating and has a higher price target of around $275 for future years, reflecting the confidence in accelerated AI demand.
