TD Cowen analysts have trimmed their one-year price target on the stock of Michael Saylor’s publicly traded Bitcoin treasury firm Strategy (Nasdaq: MSTR), estimating MSTR would be priced at $440 by the end of 2026, down from their previous forecast of $500.
While the research and investment banking division of TD Securities maintained a “Buy” rating for Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), they cited the company’s acquisition method could ultimately result in each MSTR share being worth a little less than the one before due to dilution.
TD Cowen Cuts MSTR BTC Yield As 155K Bitcoin Buying Spree Looms
In a Wednesday report, the TD Cowen analytics team stated that they expect Strategy to acquire bitcoins more quickly than previously estimated. The software intelligence firm is now projected to purchase around 155,000 BTC, worth $14.90 billion at current rates, in the 2026 fiscal year, up from its previous estimate of 90,000 BTC ($8.65 billion).
The world’s largest bitcoin treasury intends to fund its accelerated accumulation pace by issuing a mix of common and preferred equities, which the team led by Lance Vitanza, Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst at TD Cowen, said will dilute its BTC yield – defined as the percentage change in bitcoin held per fully diluted share.
Stock dilution occurs when a company issues new shares to increase the total number of shares outstanding. This reduces the ownership percentage of existing shareholders, even if they retain the same number of shares. Dilution can reduce dividend yield because dividends are paid per share. If a company issues more shares without increasing its profits, the dividend per share may either remain the same or decrease, lowering the overall yield for investors.
In Strategy’s case, this can result in the amount of bitcoin attributed to each unit of its equity securities, including the MSTR common stock and preferred products – Strike (STRK), Strife (STRF), Stride (STRD), and Stretch (STRC), being reduced.
The analysts have modeled a 7.1% “BTC Yield” for Strategy equity holders in FY 2026, which is down from their previous estimate of 8.8% for the year. It is also much lower than the 22.8% yield generated in 2025. This translates to a “Bitcoin $ Gain” of $6.31 billion for 2026, versus $9.4 billion previously, and a price target of $440 for MSTR.
Analysts Predict Higher 8.1% BTC Yield and $13.5B BTC $ Gain for Strategy in 2027
“Bitcoin $ Gain” refers to the U.S. dollar value of BTC acquired by a company without increasing its fully diluted share count, which is calculated as BTC Gain multiplied by the average bitcoin price during the purchase period. In simple terms, while the company will continue to buy more bitcoin this year, each share will benefit a little less due to the sheer amount of new shares being issued.
However, TD Cowen expects a positive reversal in fiscal 2027, with Strategy’s yield rising to 8.1% and BTC gains rising to more than $13.5 billion, compared to $10.15 billion from previous estimates.
wrote Vitanza and Jonnathan Navarrete in the research note.
“Strategy has not only survived this latest period of price compression; it has leaned into it,”
The analysts noted that rather than slowing its treasury activity during the recent market pullback, Strategy has leaned into it aggressively, utilizing the price drop to increase its bitcoin holdings.
Saylor Goes Aggressive: Strategy Buys 13,627 BTC in One Week
During the week ending January 11, the company raised approximately $1.25 billion by selling 6.8 million shares of its Class A Common Stock MSTR and 1.2 million shares of Series A Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock STRC – a high-yield, variable-dividend perpetual preferred share designed to offer stable pricing, strong yield, and indirect BTC exposure with reduced volatility from ownership – to purchase an additional 13,627 BTC, valued at $1.31 billion.
The bitcoins were acquired at an average price of $91,519 per coin, including fees and expenses. This acquisition has brought Strategy’s total bitcoin holdings to 687,410 BTC, valued at roughly $62.3 billion, while marking its largest single-week purchase since July 2025 and the third consecutive weekly accumulation in 2026. Its average cost basis across all holdings is $75,353 per BTC, representing a total acquisition cost of $51.8 billion. This reinforces the Michael Saylor-founded company’s position as the world’s largest corporate bitcoin treasury, representing over 3% of BTC’s total circulating supply.
Even though the analysts lowered their price target for one of the hottest S&P 500 stocks and expect a smaller yield in the short term due to a temporary depression in BTC price, they still believe MSTR is a good way for retail investors to gain bitcoin exposure under a regulated facility. TD Cowen said the Strategy’s preferred stocks could offer investors both income and the opportunity to make a profit if the price of MSTR rises. Strategy’s STRF Series A Perpetual Strife Preferred Stock is expected to offer a return of approximately 30% this year.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $96,473 – up 1.79% in 24 hours. Meanwhile, Strategy (MSTR) ended Wednesday’s session at $179.33 – closing the day down 0.98%.
