Global stock exchange and financial technology provider Nasdaq is making an aggressive push to enter the predictions market space after filing an application with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to launch a new class of “Outcome-Related Options.”
Nasdaq MRX, one of Nasdaq’s subsidiary options exchanges, has applied to offer cash-settled, binary-style contracts on the Nasdaq-100 index, aiming to bring the mechanics of the widely popular prediction markets – such as Polymarket and Kalshi – directly into regulated trading venues.
Nasdaq Files to List Outcome-Based Options on Nasdaq-100 Indexes
According to the regulatory documents submitted on Monday, the proposed financial instruments will be tied specifically to the performance of the Nasdaq-100 and Nasdaq-100 Micro Index, but not to outcomes related to other events, such as sports, culture, or politics. These European-style binary options would function similarly to short-term directional wagers offered on crypto exchanges.
Unlike traditional options, which provide the right to buy or sell an asset at a specific price, these prediction-style options are binary in nature, simply functioning as a “Yes” or “No” wager on whether the indexes will close above or below a certain level by a specific date. The contracts will be priced between $0.01 and $1.00.
Some of the most prominent stocks in the Nasdaq-100 include Nvidia (NVDA), Apple (APPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta (META), and Tesla (TSLA).
Wall Street, Crypto Giants Back Prediction and Event-Based Markets
An SEC approval could see the firm behind the second-largest stock exchange by market capitalization enter the booming predictions market, joining the likes of Polymarket and Kalshi. Traditional markets are not the only ones in contention, as crypto exchanges like Coinbase and Crypto.com are integrating prediction markets onto their respective platforms.
Meanwhile, other Wall Street heavyweights, such as the Intercontinental Exchange, CME Group, and Cboe Global Markets, have also made investments in the space or signaled at launching their own prediction market-style offerings.
CME Group has partnered with American gambling firm FanDuel to enable traders to bet on markets outside of finance, while Cboe’s offering will be centered on business and market outcomes. In October, Intercontinental Exchange committed $2 billion to Polymarket, while banking giant Goldman Sachs is reportedly assessing opportunities in the space.
DraftKings, the sports betting operator, has also ramped up its prediction offerings. Its contract-trading arm now operates in 38 states and set a volume record during the Super Bowl. The company is targeting $10 billion in annual revenue and is planning a market-making launch this year.
Last month, digital asset manager Bitwise also filed with the SEC to launch a “PredictionShares” exchange-traded fund (ETF) seeking to hold event contracts tied to the 2026 U.S. midterms and 2028 U.S. Presidential elections.
Prediction Markets Polymarket, Kalshi Post Fourfold Volume Growth
These filings come as prediction markets experience rapid expansion, with trading volumes hitting $63.5 billion in 2025, a fourfold increase from the previous year, while early 2026 data shows volumes across decentralized and specialized platforms reached an unprecedented $18.4 billion. However, much of that volume was driven by non-financial events, such as geopolitical outcomes or elections.
Nasdaq is also exploring Outcome-Related Options on other subsidiary options exchanges, including Nasdaq NOM and Nasdaq PHLX. Nasdaq MRX will use a first-come, first-served system and does not pay any trading incentives. In contrast, Nasdaq NOM and Nasdaq PHLX incorporate pricing models that can reward participants for adding liquidity.
Unlike traditional event contracts listed on Polymarket, Kalshi, and CME, which fall under the oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Nasdaq’s binary options would be regulated by the SEC.
