XRP’s on-chain data shows mounting stress as profitability collapses, deepening losses, and accelerating selling pressure. This signals a critical behavioural shift among holders that mirrors the past downturn phase flagged by Glassnode. According to the reports, XRP has lost its aggregate holder cost basis, causing panic selling among investors.
Are there potential implications of Price Stabilisation?
On February 9th, Glassnode shared on the social media platform X that XRP showed signs of deteriorating holder profitability after on-chain data highlighted a breakdown in key cost-basis levels. The analysis focused on changes in on-chain profitability metrics that tracked whether XRP holders are selling their tokens at a gain or loss. As part of the assessment, Glassnode noted that holders are realising significant losses, and on-chain profitability flipped negative.
The crypto analytics firm referenced the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), which measures the ratio between the price at which XRP is spent on-chain and the price at which it was originally acquired. When the SOPR is above 1, it means that the holders are spending at a profit, while if the readings are below 1, it indicates that losses are being realised. According to the firm, SOPR measured on a seven-day exponential moving average rate indicates a decline from 1.16 in July 2025 to 0.96 currently. Thereby signalling that the average XRP being moved across the network is now sold below its acquisition price. Glassnode reported that the current market structure resembles the prolonged consolidation phase from September 2021 to May 2022, where SOPR plunged to a range below 1 before stabilisation. Thus, this bearish trend is highlighting a weakening investor confidence and potential price stabilisation changes for XRP.
XRP Mirrors Historical Behavioural Patterns
The cryptocurrency market has experienced several significant cycles since the inception of Bitcoin in 2009. Each cycle features distinct characteristics, while it all shares a common psychological pattern among investors. Currently, the XRP selling pressure appears to follow an established behavioural economic principle observed during the previous market contractions.
The earlier period saw a prolonged loss realisation, reduced speculative activity and sideways price action. Using long-term smoothing, the data emphasises a sustained behavioural trend rather than the short-term move. Historically, such phases reflected an expectation reset as weaker positions exited and remaining holders endured the loss. While sub-1 SOPR readings often signal holder stress, they have occurred as markets work through excess supply and move towards a balance. Thus, the reports of Glassnode present SOPR as a behavioural indicator, portraying how XRP holders are responding to the current conditions rather than predicting price direction.
Fewer Wallets, Heavier Usage
Typically, in times like this, unrealised losses outweigh minor gains across the circulating supply. Historically, such conditions reduce selling incentives, pausing distribution and begin accumulating at discounted levels, thus supporting price stabilisation. However, XRP has not yet shown a clear sign of this shift. The selling pressure remains dominant, preventing NUPL from triggering a meaningful reversal. Without accumulation replacing the fear-driven exits, XRP will struggle to benefit from its typical recovery cues, keeping sentiment tilted firmly toward caution.
Even with the price sliding, XRP Ledger is still running in big numbers. Messari’s data shows an average daily transaction of 1.83 million in Q4 2025, up 3.1% from the quarter before, dropping active addresses to 49,000. However, even while the payments fell 1.8% to around 909,000, the offer creation rose to 42% of the entire mix. This means that people are still trading and using the network amid the loss pressure.
